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☆ Inflation has created a dark cloud over how everyday Americans view the economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-12-25 | by ( Alex Harring | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +8 min

There's rising hope that monetary policymakers have successfully cooled inflation without tipping the economy into a recession. Yet closely watched survey data from the University of Michigan shows consumer sentiment, while improving, is a far cry from pre-pandemic levels. Inflation vs. the job marketContinued strength in the labor market is something economists expected to sweeten everyday Americans' views of the economy. While the Michigan index compiles questions focused on financial conditions and purchasing power, the Conference Board's more closely gauges one's feelings about the job market. A hot job market can be a double-edged sword for sentiment, Michigan's Hsu noted.

Persons: Scott Olson, Kyle Connolly, Connolly, she's, Joanne Hsu, we're, Hsu, That's, Camelia, Kuhnen, Michigan's Hsu, UNC's Kuhnen, Karen Dynan, Marissa Lyda, Lyda, She's, there's, There's, Harvard's, Dynan, Jerome Powell, Kevin Lamarque Organizations: Toyota, Facebook, Federal Reserve, University of Michigan, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Labor Department, Conference, University of North, U.S . Treasury Department, Walmart, Federal, Committee Locations: Chicago , Illinois, Florida's panhandle, Michigan, University of North Carolina, Harvard, Phoenix, Portland, Kroger, Washington , U.S

Yet according to a raft of polls and surveys, most Americans hold a glum view of the economy. Polls consistently show that most Americans disapprove of Biden's handling of the economy. I hear that from my family.”That's particularly true for some of the goods and services that Americans pay for most frequently: Bread, beef and other groceries, apartment rents and utilities. “Partly because the country is more polarized.”Even so, many Americans, like Charles, are still feeling the pain of inflation. Even if it does, the higher pay may come with a time lag.

Persons: they’re, Joe Biden, Lisa Cook, Cook, ”, Wendy Edelberg, Katherine Charles, Charles, “, ” Charles, Maximus, Eileen Cassidy Rivera, ” Rivera, Karen Dynan, George W, Bush, Obama, Edelberg, ” Edelberg, haven't, Brad Hershbein, Anthony Murphy, Murphy, Aparna Jayashankar, ” Hershbein Organizations: WASHINGTON, Associated Press, NORC, for Public Affairs Research, Federal Reserve's Board of Governors, Duke University, “, Brookings Institution, Medicare, Affordable, Teamsters, Biden, House, Republicans, University of Michigan's, Harvard, Upjohn Institute, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Locations: U.S, Tampa , Florida, autoworkers, ”

For the bottom 40% by income that means a smaller slice of the pie even as their net worth has risen at the swiftest pace in years. said Elise Gould, senior economist at the Economic Policy Institute, a Washington-based think tank focused on labor issues. The newest data suggest that trends of higher wealth and income concentration survived pretty much intact. Yet Dynan noted that the rise in wealth over that period was 30% for families in the 80th to 99th income percentiles and more than 40% for the top 1%. Reuters GraphicsOLD TRENDS HOLD FASTThe Fed's quarterly data on wealth distribution estimates asset holdings and liabilities across racial, educational, age and income groups, and their shares of national totals.

Persons: Elise Gould, They've, Biden, Karen Dynan, Dynan, Howard Schneider, Dan Burns, Paul Simao Organizations: Federal Reserve, U.S . Census Bureau, Economic Policy Institute, United Auto Workers, Harvard University, Thomson Locations: U.S, Washington

[1/2] A view shows the entrance of the venue for the upcoming meetings of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, following last month's deadly earthquake, in Marrakech, Morocco October 1, 2023. Reuters GraphicsThe yield on the 30-year U.S. Treasury bond this week pierced 5% for the first time since 2007. Long-term U.S. yields have climbed roughly 1 percentage point in the past three months compared with a single quarter-percentage-point Fed rate hike during that period. Keeping the world's largest economy out of recession provides steadier demand for other countries' exports, as well as more certainty as Fed rate hikes hit a stopping point. The fallout depends on "how much further, and how quickly, bond yields rise," they said.

Persons: Abdelhak, China's, Goldman Sachs, Gene Tannuzzo, Tannuzzo, Karen Dynan, it's, Howard Schneider, Dan Burns, Paul Simao Organizations: International Monetary Fund, World Bank, REUTERS, Rights, U.S ., Treasuries, Reuters, Treasury, Federal Reserve, Columbia Threadneedle, Harvard University, Peterson Institute for International Economics, Capital Economics, Valley Bank, Thomson Locations: Marrakech, Morocco, U.S, Washington, California

There are uncertainties," Boston Fed President Susan Collins said in an interview with Bloomberg Television on Friday. Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin struck a similar note last week. "When you raise rates there's always the risk of the economy softening faster than it might have otherwise. "People will continue to spend as long as they get paid," said Yelena Shulyatyeva, senior U.S. economist with BNP Paribas. It will, but only at the point at which they stop getting paid" because of a slowing economy and rising unemployment.

☆ White House Considers Two Economists for Fed Vice Chair
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-22 | by ( Nick Timiraos | Andrew Restuccia | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

The White House is considering two economists who worked in the Obama administration as candidates to become the Federal Reserve’s vice chair, according to people familiar with the matter. The two— Janice Eberly , a finance professor at Northwestern University, and Karen Dynan , an economist at Harvard University—both served as the assistant Treasury secretary for economic policy, a position akin to the department’s chief economist.

☆ Brainard's move to the White House leaves a big gap for Biden to fill at the Fed
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-15 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

In her more than eight years as a Federal Reserve official, Lael Brainard was an influential voice, particularly for the side that favored keeping monetary policy loose and interest rates low. "Brainard's departure from the Fed leaves a dove-sized hole in its monetary policy," Beacon Policy Advisors wrote in its daily newsletter Wednesday. Indeed, Brainard's influence only accelerated the longer she served as a Fed governor. Her subsequent appointment in 2022 as vice chair solidified her influence, installing her as part of the "troika" of policy-directing power that includes current Chairman Jerome Powell and New York Fed President John Williams. Some candidates outside the Fed ranks, according to Guha, include Karen Dynan, Jason Furman, Janice Eberly and Christina Romer, all of whom served under former President Barack Obama (and his vice president, Biden).

☆ Factbox: Some potential successors to Brainard at the Fed
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-14 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

Meanwhile, analysts and Fed observers are already swapping notes on potential replacements for Brainard at the Fed from a bench of economists aligned with Biden's Democrats, who control the U.S. Senate. MARY DALYDaly is president of the San Francisco Fed, ascending to that position in 2018 after 22 years at the regional Fed bank, including a stint as its director of research. Furman has been a prominent, Twitter-savvy commentator on macroeconomic and Fed policy. He has a PhD from the University of Virginia and served as a Fed economist for a little over a year in the mid-1990s. With a PhD from Stanford University, he's held staff positions at the Fed board and the San Francisco Fed, where he also served as president before moving to the New York Fed role in 2018.

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